Which bias might lead individuals to view events as more predictable after they have occurred?

Hindsight bias is the phenomenon where individuals perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were at the time they occurred. This cognitive bias occurs when people believe they "knew it all along" after an event has taken place, leading to an exaggerated sense of their ability to predict outcomes. This can distort thinking and decision-making, as individuals may overlook the uncertainty that existed prior to the event and may fail to learn from previous experiences.

Understanding hindsight bias is crucial, especially in fields involving risk assessment and insider threat awareness, as it can affect how organizations evaluate past incidents and respond to potential threats. Being aware of this bias helps to promote a more accurate analysis of events, encouraging individuals to consider the uncertainties that were present at the time rather than succumbing to the illusion of predictability after the fact.