Which assumption can lead individuals to underestimate uncertainty in future events?

The assumption that leads individuals to underestimate uncertainty in future events is overconfidence. When individuals possess overconfidence, they tend to overestimate their knowledge, abilities, and the accuracy of their predictions about future outcomes. This excessive self-assurance can create a misleading impression that they have a firm grasp of future events, often ignoring or downplaying the inherent unpredictability and complexity involved. As a result, they may fail to adequately plan for potential risks or uncertainties that could impact their decisions and actions.

While foresight bias involves the illusion that one can predict future events with certainty, it is more about general hubris regarding foresight rather than a direct underestimation of uncertainty. Hindsight bias occurs when individuals believe, after an event has occurred, that they would have predicted or expected that outcome, which does not influence their views on uncertainty going forward. The availability heuristic relates to how readily certain information comes to mind, affecting perception of likelihood but not fundamentally altering the individual's inherent uncertainty. Each of these biases has its implications, yet overconfidence specifically encapsulates the tendency to underestimate future uncertainties.